Forecasting demand seems to be a fraught business, mostly guided by beliefs (and probably wishes) rather than hard-headed calculations.
I'm worried that the Iran and Russia situations are likely to constrain oil supply and thus spike prices…. Are there things we could do now (or soon) to electrify, so as to be cushioned against the possibility this situation drags on into another year (or two?)? Should individuals be looking at installing solar (wind?) now to protect themselves?
If I recall correctly, the feds gave insulation grants during the ‘70s oil crisis (avoiding the urea disaster, of course). When should we start thinking about this?
No one forecasts demand more than a few years out. Maybe five. After that, it’s sophisticated modeling whose assumptions can be compared to trends in the data. Those calculations are pretty hard headed.
Thank you for bringing facts in a sea of propaganda
Forecasting demand seems to be a fraught business, mostly guided by beliefs (and probably wishes) rather than hard-headed calculations.
I'm worried that the Iran and Russia situations are likely to constrain oil supply and thus spike prices…. Are there things we could do now (or soon) to electrify, so as to be cushioned against the possibility this situation drags on into another year (or two?)? Should individuals be looking at installing solar (wind?) now to protect themselves?
If I recall correctly, the feds gave insulation grants during the ‘70s oil crisis (avoiding the urea disaster, of course). When should we start thinking about this?
No one forecasts demand more than a few years out. Maybe five. After that, it’s sophisticated modeling whose assumptions can be compared to trends in the data. Those calculations are pretty hard headed.
All the “experts “ and academics are in thrall to the oil and gas people.
Yes! Drives me crazy.
https://decouple.substack.com/p/europe-forgot-the-lesson-the-1970s?r=q0977&utm_medium=
Industry needs energy
Demand, maybe. But supply, definitely not.