Producing more oil will not fix the structural problems of dependence on resource revenue to fund government. Commodities are inherently cyclical and come with unpredictable price cycles. Diversifying the economy of Alberta and creating stable funding through taxation is the way to fix this problem. Which is why it will never happen.
If we funnelled resources revenue into the heritage fund, we could use the interest as a stable revenue to support government spending.
OPEC does have a large influence on the price sure, but not total control.
I was more trying to say that the price is not within our control and it is affected by stuff we cannot control. Probably could have made that point better.
I think it is fair to say OPEC has a controlling influence. But I think the real take away should be that the price of our single largest export is controlled by a monopoly that is overtly in conflict with our success.
However, as EVs expand more and more I do think OPEC is being forced into a long-term long price setting environment
The United Conservative Party (UCP) government announced a $9.4 billion deficit for Alberta’s 2026 fiscal year, marking the largest deficit since the COVID-19 era and breaking the province’s own fiscal rules. This deficit is attributed to lower-than-expected oil prices, rising population-driven costs, and increased spending in health and education. The government projects three consecutive deficits totaling nearly $24 billion, with deficits of $7.6 billion in 2027 and $6.9 billion in 2028, pushing provincial debt to an estimated $137.5 billion by 2029. Despite the deficit, the UCP maintains its commitment to no major tax hikes or cuts to core services, citing affordability concerns and a desire to protect low taxes, which remain the lowest in Canada. Finance Minister Nate Horner acknowledged the fiscal framework has been breached, stating the government must find new rules that allow flexibility while still restraining spending.
the Alberta government has implemented a significant shift in automated traffic enforcement policy, effective April 1, 2025.
Under the new guidelines:
Photo radar is banned on all numbered provincial highways and connectors.
The use of automated enforcement is restricted to school zones, playground zones, and construction zones.
"Speed-on-green" cameras (which ticket drivers for speeding through a green light) have been eliminated.
Only red-light enforcement cameras remain at intersections.
To replace the broader automated enforcement, the province has introduced a new Traffic Safety Fund (initially $13 million) to support physical safety improvements at high-risk intersections. Additionally, cities like Calgary have launched dedicated Traffic Safety Teams (TST)—comprising peace officers and sergeants—who focus on proactive enforcement in high-risk areas such as playground zones, noisy vehicle violations, and speeding.
Conclusion: Alberta taxpayers will pay more ($13M) for the optics of policemen at playgrounds, while speeders continue as usual.
Ontario eliminated speed cams as well. I do not understand how drivers are able to influence policy to be so overtly bad. The argument is literally "it isn't fair I got in trouble, there wasn't a person there when I broke the law"
Seems like, even for private citizens, you have to hit us in the wallets to implement change fast. Removing the speed cams is obstructing change for the better. 🤕
The Canadian attachment to the oil industry is based on emotion, not facts or numbers, so declining job numbers or market won't change the sense that oil and gas are Canada's security blanket. It is very unlikely that Smith cares about job numbers; she cares about royalties, but they do not seem to be benefiting Albertans.
Alberta needs to shift it's tax base, but it can't really afford to do that I told it has shifted it's economic base. Royalties are the equivalent of free money the government gets to inject into the economy, whereas taxes are a redistribution of money from inside the economy.
Alberta needs to build value added industries, supplemental industries (carbon capture), adjacent industries (geothermal), and Alternative industries (AI & Advanced computing). But until it has that diversified base, I do think a crash in royalties will be quite bad and should be avoided.
Producing more oil will not fix the structural problems of dependence on resource revenue to fund government. Commodities are inherently cyclical and come with unpredictable price cycles. Diversifying the economy of Alberta and creating stable funding through taxation is the way to fix this problem. Which is why it will never happen.
If we funnelled resources revenue into the heritage fund, we could use the interest as a stable revenue to support government spending.
Then again that would require long term thinking.
I have to point out, oil prices are not cyclical, they are OPEC policy.
I certainly agree Alberta needs to diversify its revenue structure, likely through a PST as a first step.
OPEC does have a large influence on the price sure, but not total control.
I was more trying to say that the price is not within our control and it is affected by stuff we cannot control. Probably could have made that point better.
I think it is fair to say OPEC has a controlling influence. But I think the real take away should be that the price of our single largest export is controlled by a monopoly that is overtly in conflict with our success.
However, as EVs expand more and more I do think OPEC is being forced into a long-term long price setting environment
UCP Deficit 2026 Announced
The United Conservative Party (UCP) government announced a $9.4 billion deficit for Alberta’s 2026 fiscal year, marking the largest deficit since the COVID-19 era and breaking the province’s own fiscal rules. This deficit is attributed to lower-than-expected oil prices, rising population-driven costs, and increased spending in health and education. The government projects three consecutive deficits totaling nearly $24 billion, with deficits of $7.6 billion in 2027 and $6.9 billion in 2028, pushing provincial debt to an estimated $137.5 billion by 2029. Despite the deficit, the UCP maintains its commitment to no major tax hikes or cuts to core services, citing affordability concerns and a desire to protect low taxes, which remain the lowest in Canada. Finance Minister Nate Horner acknowledged the fiscal framework has been breached, stating the government must find new rules that allow flexibility while still restraining spending.
Smith/UCP must go!
The budget will be larger, since the UPC regularly under budgets expenses.
But hey, the US might bomb Iran tonight and maybe Oil will reach $100 tomorrow
🤣 about oil price. I fact checked, Alberta had a suplus last year. Another Trump playbook rule: just lie.
the Alberta government has implemented a significant shift in automated traffic enforcement policy, effective April 1, 2025.
Under the new guidelines:
Photo radar is banned on all numbered provincial highways and connectors.
The use of automated enforcement is restricted to school zones, playground zones, and construction zones.
"Speed-on-green" cameras (which ticket drivers for speeding through a green light) have been eliminated.
Only red-light enforcement cameras remain at intersections.
To replace the broader automated enforcement, the province has introduced a new Traffic Safety Fund (initially $13 million) to support physical safety improvements at high-risk intersections. Additionally, cities like Calgary have launched dedicated Traffic Safety Teams (TST)—comprising peace officers and sergeants—who focus on proactive enforcement in high-risk areas such as playground zones, noisy vehicle violations, and speeding.
Conclusion: Alberta taxpayers will pay more ($13M) for the optics of policemen at playgrounds, while speeders continue as usual.
Ontario eliminated speed cams as well. I do not understand how drivers are able to influence policy to be so overtly bad. The argument is literally "it isn't fair I got in trouble, there wasn't a person there when I broke the law"
Seems like, even for private citizens, you have to hit us in the wallets to implement change fast. Removing the speed cams is obstructing change for the better. 🤕
The Canadian attachment to the oil industry is based on emotion, not facts or numbers, so declining job numbers or market won't change the sense that oil and gas are Canada's security blanket. It is very unlikely that Smith cares about job numbers; she cares about royalties, but they do not seem to be benefiting Albertans.
Alberta needs to shift it's tax base, but it can't really afford to do that I told it has shifted it's economic base. Royalties are the equivalent of free money the government gets to inject into the economy, whereas taxes are a redistribution of money from inside the economy.
Alberta needs to build value added industries, supplemental industries (carbon capture), adjacent industries (geothermal), and Alternative industries (AI & Advanced computing). But until it has that diversified base, I do think a crash in royalties will be quite bad and should be avoided.