An excellent essay. Thank you. I'd note that Carney is, perhaps unintentionally, assisting Smith. There are a great many Albertans that do NOT like their province run to benefit the oil and gas industry, and there a great many Albertans who want to remain a part of Canada. Carney is helping Smith do the former and is completely ignoring the latter by refusing to wrestle with her separatist desires.
Another very good analysis, well worth the time to read and absorb.
You’ll forgive me if I piggyback through the comments section, but your exposure is rightfully growing due to your timely relevance and perspective.
I would like to put out there for consideration the reason Premier Smith is pursuing a separation vote may be nefarious.
She knows it will fail, and only please a fraction of her voting public. Why inflict the damage, both to her brand, and the economic fallout from the uncertainty she is creating?
Putin invaded areas of Ukraine with the justification being to “free the Russians living under the thumbs of the corrupt Ukraine Government”. They, the people oppressed, did not have a majority, just a grievance. It was an excuse. He wanted their lands and resources.
Trump wants the same, and Premier Smith may just be giving him the excuse to invade Alberta to “free” the minority.
This is not just likely, but probable, given her close relationship and the meeting at Mar A Lago. It is well within the realm of reason in Trumps’ mind, and something his close relationship with Putin makes likely. He may even be acting on Putins’ orders, to further destabilize the U.S. and the west.
Invading Alberta, with the excuse of freeing the oppressed minority, is exactly the type of action Trump would take, as he is a world shaper and shaker- in his own mind anyways.
We cannot be complacent that a separation vote will fail, it must fail spectacularly, or the above becomes possible.
Canada's role in the destruction of Ukraine is not because of Putin's desire for empire, it is because of NATO expansion and NATO's desire to replace the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea with its own, stripping Russia of its only warm water port.
To frame Ukraine as a fledgling democracy with its people struggling against Russian aggression ignores NATO aims and objectives: to weaken and "balkanize" the Russian Federation.
NATO expansion, is the cause of Canada's economic decline and contraction.
Wouldn't the $20billion committed to Ukraine since 2022 have been better spent at home instead of prolonging the bloodbath in Ukraine, which Boris Johnson encouraged, rather than have Zelensky sign a peace deal with Russia which had already been initialled?
Just look at our infrastructure and national debt.
Our economy actually contracted the last quarter!
Reports of over 1 million casualties in a war that Jason Kenney precipitated after Separatists in the DonBas rebelled when Ukrainan neo nazis started literally burning people alive in Odessa.
The Canadian Embassy in Kiev was used by right wing Neo Nazis for a week during the Maidan event. " They took a van, but left flowers!" Said the Canadian ambassador approvingly.
Canada trained the Ukrainian armed forces from 2014, Poroshenko, gave Kenney a medal and the moniker
" Godfather of the Ukrainian Armed Forces", including the neo nazi Azov Battalion.
Victoria Nuland, of the US State Department said the US had spent $6BillionUS on "democracy building" in Ukraine before she handed out cookies on the Maidan in 2014.
I wonder how much is being spent by the US to destabilize Canada?
Alberta has more to fear from the US than Russia.
Trump's recent bid for Venezuelan oil, a direct competitor to Alberta in terms of refining requirement, would probably undermine Alberta's markets in the US.
Alberta's faith based communities have more in common with US "bible belt" worldview thinking and are the misguided "moral" minority that seem to have Alberta and its MAGA UCP government captive.
Canada needs to become a peaceful neutral, non aligned country that reflects the wishes of its multicultural population.
Stop the military expansionism, develop an industrial strategy, build a rugged, cross Canada electrical grid,make electricity cheap for everyone.
Stop sacrificing Canada with futile military adventures overseas with unreliable allies.
We are bankrupting ourselves in the process of prolonging the bloodbath in Ukraine, propping up a corrupt regime that includes neo nazis.
Best wishes for a happier new year......but not holding my breath.
A lot of ridiculous nonsense. NATO is no threat to Russia, and the very idea Putin is a legitimate leader whos control over Russia should be respected revolts me.
As for the $20B, pushing Russia out of the market has been enormously beneficial to the Canadian economy, they are a competitor to almost everything we sell. The jump in oil prices and revenues alone easily dwarfs this. I would never support war on the basis of it being good for Canada's economy, but the idea supporting Ukraine is bad for our economy shows a complete lack of understanding.
Wow, that’s a lot to unpack. However, I stated that Putin used downtrodden Russians in Crimea and Donbas as his excuse to invade, not his reason. Likewise in Alberta, downtrodden separatists may be the excuse Drumpf uses to invade, not the reason. The reasons include oil, minerals, lumber, and the side benefit of breaking up Canada, leaving the remains to be absorbed over time. To me, separatists in Alberta are just short of treasonous, only because we can’t call them that unless we are in a state of war. If the U.S. invades, they become traitors to Canada, and that will have consequences.
May I add, all the criticisms of Smith here apply also to Poilievre. In some regards I like Poilievre; I like the way he tells Bay street they aren't special, I appreciate he was able to connect with working class concerns on the Carbon Tax and Temporary Foreign workers (something the NDP should have owned but completely ignored), and of course I love the way he eats an apple. And I believe, left to his own and under normal circumstances, he would be a traditional small government conservative without much risk.
But in reality he has tied himself to the same base and lobbyists as Smith. And with increasing US pressure on right wing parties and given his relationships to Musk and Vance, I strongly believe he would fall to the pressure of this same style of authoritarianism - and all evidence around how he would force projects like a pipeline through regardless of courts or constitution support that.
I do think Smith represents more than a Person who is a leader, she represents a strain of politics that won't disappear with her. And to be honest, I am concerned the UCP might replace her with a true separatist with even more aligned to American interests if she loses support. This is one of the reasons I am glad to see Carney making a tangible effort to show Albertan's their priorities are Canadian concerns.
It is a great misfortune, and nothing more than unfortunate coincidence, that the NDP went into Government in Alberta exactly as the shale boom launched and OPEC started pushing up supply to fight for market share. And that Smith took leadership as the Russian invasion created a market shock that propped up oil prices. It has create what is nothing but an illusion that the UCP is good with finance and the NDP bad - but the deficits run by one government and surpluses of the other had nothing to do with policy. Its disappointing that the Province who claims oil as a culture doesn't understand such a simple underlying reality. The only silver lining of oil prices dropping today is that maybe Albertans will see there was no fiscal wizardry by the UCP as the party faces large deficits due to this reliance on unpredictable commodity prices.
Oil was at $40/barrel from 2015 to 2019 - a factor that hindered the Alberta NDP when they were in office and which so many forget. And Poilievre is nothing more than a unaccomplished mouthpiece who has achieved nothing in office and does not belong in office. We both have different perspectives.
Meant no criticism but ewww - PP is the most unappealing politician in Canada today. As a matter of interest, some insiders have said for about a year now that Ford will jump to federal politics and replace PP. Seems that’s a possibility now too. 🙂
No Criticism taken. Obviously I don't love the guy (although, some seem to find him quite appealing). But from what I have heard he is at least sincere in his belief in his Youtube educated stances. I would agree that's true today, although its an easy game to loose with the Liberals fielding Carney and the NDP no one, at least federally. A year ago? idk, much tighter competition in that race to the bottom.
I thought Ford would go for Liberal leadership before Carney came in, tbh. It wouldn't be the worst thing - everything Ford does I really dislike is Provincial jurisdiction, so at least he'd stop play acting mayor of Toronto. The few things Ford does that I do like, on the other hand, he would have a role in as the Federal government.
But with Carney around, I don't see the CPC winning unless something astounding happens (which, given the outlook of 2026, is like saying "unless Monday happens").
Just rumours that I heard about a year ago from an ‘insider’ who says it’s still coming. Scrambles my head these days living in Alberta, they’re doing so much craziness it’s just spinning us all around, just like Trump does.
I send you lots of seasons greetings and loveliness for all the year!
It must be him or Kenny. The "irony" is neither play well in Alberta or with the Reform side of the CPC, although the point obviously is to get someone who gets high vote numbers that aren't just 80% margins in safe seats.
But with Carney playing rather close to PC, idk what the CPC does to both differentiate themselves and knock out an incumbent (unless the economy tanks and Carney has to wear it). Imo, the only real play is someone like Maxime managing to merge the Reform voters and the Bloc into a "Confederation party" where the argument is Provinces do whatever they want, and shrink the Federal government is the only real goal.
Excellent col, Markham. I especially appreciate your point about the gap between oil industry rhetoric, and practice. We’ve been plague by this for so long - oil companies spending millions to try to create the impression of being environmental friendly while resisting every new regulation or methane target to help the climate. Somehow that gap does not penetrate public consciousness here. That’s such an important advantage for the oil, friendly government that runs us now.
Idk, foot hills of the Rockies and you can afford a house? Pretty good sales point. A little overly suburban for my taste, but easily one of my favorite Canadian cities as well. It may be the O&G capital, but take away hydro and it's also the city running on the most renewable power per capita.
You must enjoy driving in traffic however looney the other drivers may be! Driving and driving and driving, or alternatively staying in your own beige and brown, or grey, suburb - the hideous suburbs of Calgary that are more and more crammed and dull the newer they get, crowding over what were the foothills of the Rockies.
I live in the GTA, it's still an improvement lol. Otherwise those awful Alberta commercials wouldn't have worked so well that Albertans now hate immigration from Ontario
Right on the money. I am also concerned at PM trying to placate Smith and unwilling to challenge her, though I understand that is easy for me to say…..
An excellent essay. Thank you. I'd note that Carney is, perhaps unintentionally, assisting Smith. There are a great many Albertans that do NOT like their province run to benefit the oil and gas industry, and there a great many Albertans who want to remain a part of Canada. Carney is helping Smith do the former and is completely ignoring the latter by refusing to wrestle with her separatist desires.
Yup. Without question.
Another very good analysis, well worth the time to read and absorb.
You’ll forgive me if I piggyback through the comments section, but your exposure is rightfully growing due to your timely relevance and perspective.
I would like to put out there for consideration the reason Premier Smith is pursuing a separation vote may be nefarious.
She knows it will fail, and only please a fraction of her voting public. Why inflict the damage, both to her brand, and the economic fallout from the uncertainty she is creating?
Putin invaded areas of Ukraine with the justification being to “free the Russians living under the thumbs of the corrupt Ukraine Government”. They, the people oppressed, did not have a majority, just a grievance. It was an excuse. He wanted their lands and resources.
Trump wants the same, and Premier Smith may just be giving him the excuse to invade Alberta to “free” the minority.
This is not just likely, but probable, given her close relationship and the meeting at Mar A Lago. It is well within the realm of reason in Trumps’ mind, and something his close relationship with Putin makes likely. He may even be acting on Putins’ orders, to further destabilize the U.S. and the west.
Invading Alberta, with the excuse of freeing the oppressed minority, is exactly the type of action Trump would take, as he is a world shaper and shaker- in his own mind anyways.
We cannot be complacent that a separation vote will fail, it must fail spectacularly, or the above becomes possible.
Canada's role in the destruction of Ukraine is not because of Putin's desire for empire, it is because of NATO expansion and NATO's desire to replace the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea with its own, stripping Russia of its only warm water port.
To frame Ukraine as a fledgling democracy with its people struggling against Russian aggression ignores NATO aims and objectives: to weaken and "balkanize" the Russian Federation.
NATO expansion, is the cause of Canada's economic decline and contraction.
Wouldn't the $20billion committed to Ukraine since 2022 have been better spent at home instead of prolonging the bloodbath in Ukraine, which Boris Johnson encouraged, rather than have Zelensky sign a peace deal with Russia which had already been initialled?
Just look at our infrastructure and national debt.
Our economy actually contracted the last quarter!
Reports of over 1 million casualties in a war that Jason Kenney precipitated after Separatists in the DonBas rebelled when Ukrainan neo nazis started literally burning people alive in Odessa.
The Canadian Embassy in Kiev was used by right wing Neo Nazis for a week during the Maidan event. " They took a van, but left flowers!" Said the Canadian ambassador approvingly.
Canada trained the Ukrainian armed forces from 2014, Poroshenko, gave Kenney a medal and the moniker
" Godfather of the Ukrainian Armed Forces", including the neo nazi Azov Battalion.
Victoria Nuland, of the US State Department said the US had spent $6BillionUS on "democracy building" in Ukraine before she handed out cookies on the Maidan in 2014.
I wonder how much is being spent by the US to destabilize Canada?
Alberta has more to fear from the US than Russia.
Trump's recent bid for Venezuelan oil, a direct competitor to Alberta in terms of refining requirement, would probably undermine Alberta's markets in the US.
Alberta's faith based communities have more in common with US "bible belt" worldview thinking and are the misguided "moral" minority that seem to have Alberta and its MAGA UCP government captive.
Canada needs to become a peaceful neutral, non aligned country that reflects the wishes of its multicultural population.
Stop the military expansionism, develop an industrial strategy, build a rugged, cross Canada electrical grid,make electricity cheap for everyone.
Stop sacrificing Canada with futile military adventures overseas with unreliable allies.
We are bankrupting ourselves in the process of prolonging the bloodbath in Ukraine, propping up a corrupt regime that includes neo nazis.
Best wishes for a happier new year......but not holding my breath.
Stop the wars!
Stop supporting Genocide!
A lot of ridiculous nonsense. NATO is no threat to Russia, and the very idea Putin is a legitimate leader whos control over Russia should be respected revolts me.
As for the $20B, pushing Russia out of the market has been enormously beneficial to the Canadian economy, they are a competitor to almost everything we sell. The jump in oil prices and revenues alone easily dwarfs this. I would never support war on the basis of it being good for Canada's economy, but the idea supporting Ukraine is bad for our economy shows a complete lack of understanding.
Wow, that’s a lot to unpack. However, I stated that Putin used downtrodden Russians in Crimea and Donbas as his excuse to invade, not his reason. Likewise in Alberta, downtrodden separatists may be the excuse Drumpf uses to invade, not the reason. The reasons include oil, minerals, lumber, and the side benefit of breaking up Canada, leaving the remains to be absorbed over time. To me, separatists in Alberta are just short of treasonous, only because we can’t call them that unless we are in a state of war. If the U.S. invades, they become traitors to Canada, and that will have consequences.
May I add, all the criticisms of Smith here apply also to Poilievre. In some regards I like Poilievre; I like the way he tells Bay street they aren't special, I appreciate he was able to connect with working class concerns on the Carbon Tax and Temporary Foreign workers (something the NDP should have owned but completely ignored), and of course I love the way he eats an apple. And I believe, left to his own and under normal circumstances, he would be a traditional small government conservative without much risk.
But in reality he has tied himself to the same base and lobbyists as Smith. And with increasing US pressure on right wing parties and given his relationships to Musk and Vance, I strongly believe he would fall to the pressure of this same style of authoritarianism - and all evidence around how he would force projects like a pipeline through regardless of courts or constitution support that.
I do think Smith represents more than a Person who is a leader, she represents a strain of politics that won't disappear with her. And to be honest, I am concerned the UCP might replace her with a true separatist with even more aligned to American interests if she loses support. This is one of the reasons I am glad to see Carney making a tangible effort to show Albertan's their priorities are Canadian concerns.
It is a great misfortune, and nothing more than unfortunate coincidence, that the NDP went into Government in Alberta exactly as the shale boom launched and OPEC started pushing up supply to fight for market share. And that Smith took leadership as the Russian invasion created a market shock that propped up oil prices. It has create what is nothing but an illusion that the UCP is good with finance and the NDP bad - but the deficits run by one government and surpluses of the other had nothing to do with policy. Its disappointing that the Province who claims oil as a culture doesn't understand such a simple underlying reality. The only silver lining of oil prices dropping today is that maybe Albertans will see there was no fiscal wizardry by the UCP as the party faces large deficits due to this reliance on unpredictable commodity prices.
Oil was at $40/barrel from 2015 to 2019 - a factor that hindered the Alberta NDP when they were in office and which so many forget. And Poilievre is nothing more than a unaccomplished mouthpiece who has achieved nothing in office and does not belong in office. We both have different perspectives.
I don't think we have different perspectives at all? Maybe my comment was unclear I'd be happy to edit for any confusion
Meant no criticism but ewww - PP is the most unappealing politician in Canada today. As a matter of interest, some insiders have said for about a year now that Ford will jump to federal politics and replace PP. Seems that’s a possibility now too. 🙂
No Criticism taken. Obviously I don't love the guy (although, some seem to find him quite appealing). But from what I have heard he is at least sincere in his belief in his Youtube educated stances. I would agree that's true today, although its an easy game to loose with the Liberals fielding Carney and the NDP no one, at least federally. A year ago? idk, much tighter competition in that race to the bottom.
I thought Ford would go for Liberal leadership before Carney came in, tbh. It wouldn't be the worst thing - everything Ford does I really dislike is Provincial jurisdiction, so at least he'd stop play acting mayor of Toronto. The few things Ford does that I do like, on the other hand, he would have a role in as the Federal government.
But with Carney around, I don't see the CPC winning unless something astounding happens (which, given the outlook of 2026, is like saying "unless Monday happens").
Just rumours that I heard about a year ago from an ‘insider’ who says it’s still coming. Scrambles my head these days living in Alberta, they’re doing so much craziness it’s just spinning us all around, just like Trump does.
I send you lots of seasons greetings and loveliness for all the year!
🎄❤️🎄
It must be him or Kenny. The "irony" is neither play well in Alberta or with the Reform side of the CPC, although the point obviously is to get someone who gets high vote numbers that aren't just 80% margins in safe seats.
But with Carney playing rather close to PC, idk what the CPC does to both differentiate themselves and knock out an incumbent (unless the economy tanks and Carney has to wear it). Imo, the only real play is someone like Maxime managing to merge the Reform voters and the Bloc into a "Confederation party" where the argument is Provinces do whatever they want, and shrink the Federal government is the only real goal.
Merry Christmas!
Reread your comment again and yes, our perspectives are quite close.
Excellent col, Markham. I especially appreciate your point about the gap between oil industry rhetoric, and practice. We’ve been plague by this for so long - oil companies spending millions to try to create the impression of being environmental friendly while resisting every new regulation or methane target to help the climate. Somehow that gap does not penetrate public consciousness here. That’s such an important advantage for the oil, friendly government that runs us now.
Will Albertan’s finally figure out that they are pawns in the game Separatiast in Québec still haven’t figured it out.
Calgary, oil 'n' gas capital of Canada, is your favourite Canadian city?!?
Idk, foot hills of the Rockies and you can afford a house? Pretty good sales point. A little overly suburban for my taste, but easily one of my favorite Canadian cities as well. It may be the O&G capital, but take away hydro and it's also the city running on the most renewable power per capita.
You must enjoy driving in traffic however looney the other drivers may be! Driving and driving and driving, or alternatively staying in your own beige and brown, or grey, suburb - the hideous suburbs of Calgary that are more and more crammed and dull the newer they get, crowding over what were the foothills of the Rockies.
I live in the GTA, it's still an improvement lol. Otherwise those awful Alberta commercials wouldn't have worked so well that Albertans now hate immigration from Ontario
Right on the money. I am also concerned at PM trying to placate Smith and unwilling to challenge her, though I understand that is easy for me to say…..
I appreciate how you clearly explain these issues, their linkages and why we need to change our approach - for a layperson like me.