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British Columbia Premier David Eby’s election gamble became more dangerous the moment Kerry-Lynne Findlay resigned. The BC Conservative leader who had helped tear her party apart was gone. Former colleagues who could barely work together had a reason to reunite: defeating the NDP.
That is the uncomfortable assessment from my guest, Hamish Telford. Eby had an opportunity to exploit a divided opposition. Telford argues that Findlay’s departure changed the calculation enough that the premier should have abandoned his plan for a snap election.
Now British Columbians face a harder question. After years of NDP government, are they ready to hand power to a Conservative Party still struggling with its own divisions?
“Are people comfortable with the change that’s on offer or not?” Telford asks.
There is a second complication for Eby, and it runs straight through his energy policy. His enthusiasm for LNG development and his approach to the proposed Pacific Link oil pipeline could deepen the disillusionment of the NDP’s environmental supporters. Telford sees an opening for the Greens, with consequences that could extend well beyond the seats they actually win.
Vote splitting matters. An environmental voter who leaves the NDP can change the result in a close riding. Conservatives face their own competition from OneBC and CentreBC. That makes confident predictions about the outcome particularly difficult.
What interests me is how these pressures interact. The Conservatives need to persuade voters that their reunion can survive the demands of governing. Eby needs to hold together voters who want economic development and those increasingly frustrated by his government’s commitment to oil and gas.
Telford expects swing voters in Surrey and the Fraser Valley to be particularly important. Party loyalists may dislike the choices in front of them and still turn out. Voters with weaker party attachments have a consequential decision to make.
We also discuss why Telford expects Indigenous consultation to become a major obstacle for Pacific Link. His concern is that Ottawa’s apparent determination to proceed could undermine confidence that consultation will meaningfully influence the outcome. He anticipates court challenges; that is his assessment, not an established result.
Watch the interview for the Conservative rupture, Eby’s timing and the electoral consequences of energy development. A campaign that began with an opposition in turmoil could still become a test of whether the NDP has exhausted voters’ patience. The answer may depend on which alternative those voters are prepared to trust with government.
