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The most important energy story in the world may be unfolding on the demand side. And it’s occurring in countries that are discovering electrification can reduce both energy costs and dependence on volatile oil markets.
Reuters energy columnist Gavin Maguire has been tracking two datasets that rarely appear in the same Canadian energy conversation: China’s exports of electric vehicles and grid equipment, and gasoline imports by major consuming countries. The overlap is increasingly difficult to ignore. Countries buying more Chinese electrification technology are also, in a number of cases, curbing gasoline purchases.
Maguire is careful about causation. So am I.
Electric vehicles still make up a much smaller share of the total vehicle fleet than of new sales, and the transition will be uneven. Gasoline and diesel vehicles will remain on the road for years. Liquefied natural gas also has a durable role in Asia, where growing economies need abundant, reliable power and gas can help replace coal and serve industrial users.
But the direction of travel is becoming clearer. Maguire sees electrification advancing not only in Europe and China, but in emerging economies and even oil and gas producing countries. Pakistan and parts of Africa are importing Chinese EVs, grid equipment and other technologies. Chinese firms are also helping finance, deploy and service that equipment locally.
Energy security is accelerating the shift. Countries exposed to expensive or unreliable hydrocarbon imports increasingly see domestic wind, solar, batteries and electrified transport as protection against geopolitical shocks and price volatility. Policies once sold primarily as climate measures are being recast as energy-security strategy.
That matters enormously for Canada.
We are planning new oil and LNG exports into an Asian market that is simultaneously building the infrastructure to consume more electricity and, over time, fewer petroleum fuels. The question is no longer whether electrification reaches those markets. It is how quickly it begins to materially displace gasoline, diesel and eventually other hydrocarbon demand.
Canada’s energy strategy has to account for both sides of that equation. Producers may have decades of profitable demand ahead. Consumers are already changing the system they will be buying energy from.
