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British Columbia has changed governments many times, but the underlying political dynamic has been remarkably durable: opponents of the NDP eventually find a way to assemble themselves into a coalition capable of defeating it. Political scientist Richard Johnston thinks the B.C. Conservatives are discovering how difficult that job can be.
Johnston, a professor at Simon Fraser University and one of Canada’s leading scholars of elections and political parties, joined me to discuss what is happening to B.C.’s party system as the province heads into another election campaign.
His argument is fascinating.
The NDP government is vulnerable. After years in office, dissatisfaction has accumulated and some voters are looking for change. Normally, that creates an opportunity for the opposition.
But Johnston argues that the Conservatives carry political baggage that can make it harder for those dissatisfied voters to move.
“The right keeps trying to raise the cost of accountability,” he told me.
Part of the problem is geography.
Conservative politics fits comfortably across much of northern and interior British Columbia, where political attitudes can resemble neighbouring Alberta. But elections are also decided in the Lower Mainland and other coastal communities shaped by an internationally connected trading economy, environmental concerns and a very different political culture.
That creates a difficult coalition-building problem. The politics that energizes Conservative voters in one part of the province can complicate the party’s attempt to broaden its support elsewhere.
Donald Trump adds another dimension.
“The government probably benefits from being the anti-Trump party,” Johnston said. The question is whether the Conservatives can distance themselves from Trump-associated politics without triggering new tensions within their own coalition.
But this conversation is about much more than the Conservatives.
Johnston explains how the NDP itself has evolved from its traditional base in organized labour toward what he calls a “party of middle class progressivism.” We also discuss why Green voters shouldn’t automatically be considered future NDP voters — Johnston describes the Greens for some voters as a political “parking spot” — and how decades of economic and demographic change have reshaped B.C.’s political coalitions.
The result is a useful way to think about this election.
Voters may want change.
The harder question is whether they are comfortable with the alternative.
