Alberta separatism is about greed, ambition and becoming an oil superpower
The real driver of separatism is the thwarted opportunism of the Blue-Eyed Sheikhs 2.0
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Know what Alberta separatists mostly talk about? Pipelines and oil. How Justin Trudeau and the Liberals hated pipelines and oil. Federal regulations that stifle the building of more pipelines. How much richer Alberta would be if it had total control of pipelines and its vast oil reserves. Pipelines and oil are the entree of the separatist movement, while equalization, immigration and other issues are mere side dishes. So, may we finally admit the truth?
Alberta separatism is about oil, the wealth and power oil represents, and the belief that Canada is standing in the way of Alberta joining the ranks of Russia and Saudi Arabia as major oil superpowers.
If you want to understand Alberta separatism, look to the frustrations of the oil and gas industry. It’s no mystery why public opinion polling shows that separatism’s strongest supporters are high income earners in the oil patch who are saddled with debt and can’t make ends meet on $200,000 per year. Or that oil CEOs are under pressure from (mostly foreign) shareholders to boost dividends and stock prices. Or that the Alberta government is addicted to billions each year in oil revenue.
Alberta is not a victim of “Eastern bastards” or the Government of Canada. It has no structural grievances, only political complaints that need to be managed by a better class of politicians.
Naked self-interest, not condescending elites a few thousand kilometres away, is a far better explanation for why a quarter of Albertans think separation is a better option than federation.
The Thwarted Ambitions of the Blue-Eyed Sheikhs 2.0
Journalist Peter Foster got it right almost 50 years ago in The Blue-eyed Sheikhs - The Canadian Oil Establishment. He argued that Alberta’s oil industry had developed a powerful sense of grievance and entitlement rooted in its growing economic importance to Canada. Foster portrayed the province’s oil executives, politicians, and business leaders as aspiring energy potentates who believed that Alberta’s vast petroleum wealth entitled them to greater political influence and freedom from federal interference.
Just like then, today’s oil and gas leaders are frustrated masters of the universe. They long to wield the wealth, status, and power of Russia or Saudi Arabia. Unlike their global competitors, their production is landlocked, forcing them to beg—as they see it—for pipelines to tidewater. If only Ottawa and pesky provinces like British Columbia would get out of the way, Alberta could reach its full potential as an oil and gas superpower.
Let’s do the math.
The United States is the world’s biggest oil producer at 14 million barrels per day (b/d). Next are Russia and the Saudis just over 9 million b/d. Canada clocks in at fourth with roughly 5.5 million b/d, with Alberta contributing 4 million b/d, though much of the production in other provinces is controlled by Alberta-based oil companies.
One of Premier Danielle Smith’s favourite talking points is that Alberta will double its oil production to 8 million b/d by 2035. Is she serious? Indeed she is.
“…implement a roadmap to reach 6 million barrels per day of Alberta oil production by 2030 and 8 million barrels per day by 2035,” Smith instructed in her October, 2025 mandate letter to Energy Minister Brian Jean. His remit also includes spearheading the construction of three new pipelines to the NW BC coast, Hudson’s Bay, and Ontario. In public comments, Smith has often called for five new pipelines.
Last year, before and after the federal election, oil CEOs published a series of open letters (here and here) to Canada’s federal politicians. They are full of pleas to unleash the industry so that it can take advantage of the once-in-a-generation opportunity to achieve its “full potential.” And what might that be, you ask?
Look no further than OPEC’s global oil demand modelling studies. The latest, from last year, estimates that global oil consumption will rise from 105 million b/d now to 124 million b/d by 2050. That’s a 19 million b/d increase in 25 years. From the point of view of Smith and the CEOs, adding another 4 million b/d of supply from Alberta captures roughly 20 per cent of that growth.
Viewed from that perspective, Alberta’s ambitions seem reasonable. Restrained, even. Remember, the province is home to 170 billion barrels of recoverable bitumen—the third largest oil reserves in the world—in the northern oil sands. And a 2025 S&P Global report pegged the average oil sands breakeven price at $27 per barrel, which is very competitive by global standards.
The missing piece of the puzzle? Pipelines.
Just an Alberta Movement
A consistent theme of Alberta separatism is the oft-repeated demand for more pipelines. Separatist leaders claim that an independent Alberta could build as many pipelines as it wanted, dismissing with a wave the obvious point that said pipelines would still have to travel through other provinces. The separatists also claim that Alberta the country would have more clout to negotiate than Alberta the province.
Other western provinces don’t share Alberta’s angst.
A January 2026 Pollara Strategic Insights poll found that just 14 per cent of respondents support separatism in the Western provinces. While Saskatchewan (20%) polled close to Alberta (19%), there was precious little enthusiasm in BC (11%) and Manitoba (8%).
The reason is straightforward: separatism is an Alberta movement. It’s about wealth and power, not mistreatment by Ottawa. It’s about being thwarted by federal policy based on values the oil industry doesn’t respect, like mitigating climate change and protecting the environment.
Smith, the CEOs, and the separatists all believe that oil industry’s time has come. Destiny is knocking. All Canada has to do is open the door and then get out of the way, either by acquiescing to Alberta’s policy demands, as Prime Minister Mark Carney has chosen to do, or by seceding.
Alberta separatism is an ambition movement. Its leaders are demanding the political freedom to pursue the wealth, status, and power that come with a larger oil and gas future.
Is that enough reason to break up a country? No, it isn’t.
Thank you Markham. I agree with your analysis. I would add a few other points because the media has not covered this either.
Firstly, I strongly believe Danielle Smith is a separatist, and gone back to her Wild Rose roots. But in order to further her objective she could not just "separate" as that has no real-world likelihood of success - an independent Alberta is not viable, never was. But, a former Alberta, now American state, absorbed into the USA does have a chance. I believe Smith has taken some sort of advance deposit/payment for delivering Alberta to Trump as a real-estate deal. She cares nothing for Canada, or Canadians, or even Albertans. This is her money ticket. Every move she's made for two years is to undermine, and weaken the country. Every move she's made in the past 16 months furthers this agenda, despite having the most PRO Prime Minister to Alberta's interests in power and willing to work with Alberta. She still calls a referendum. David Parker and the separatists are bought and paid for by the USA MAGA. Period.
Secondly, the hard right in the USA as far as the Christian nationalists are heavily at play here as well. There are churches in Alberta and elsewhere which espouse separatist leanings. For these people there is also an ideology at play here and they are working hard to enact this and separate. Pastor Doug Wilson who is close with Trump and Hegseth has openly talked about Alberta separatism, and pushing for this. He's also stated publicly that if the referendum does not work they will have to use stronger acts on Canadian soil to liberate Alberta. Read that again, this is outright threats of war against Canada. And this must be investigated, and punished.
When my dad passed away several years ago, I inherited some of his books, including 'The Blue-Eyed Sheiks' and 'Arctic Dreams', Barry Lopez. They were topical books in their time and commemorative to me: he was directly involved in the Arctic Drilling Project in the Bearing Sea led by Dome Petroleum. I was first employed in the Alberta oil patch in 1975, so I knew something about what those books discussed and the history they reflected.
I believe the term 'blue-eyed sheiks' has been corrupted from its original meaning: It was originally an epithet cast by negotiators in Ottawa, Bay Street and NY to refer to the Lougheed government, representing the Province of Alberta, fiercely guarding the interests of the resource owners (the people of Alberta) from predatory practices of both the Canadian and US governments and world financial markets. The Lougheed government had some pretty sharp negotiators and their adversaries discovered that Albertans weren't the unsophisticated redneck hillbillies they expected to meet. They expressed their resentment and new-found respect by calling Alberta 'blue-eyed sheiks' because of their exceptional bargaining skills.
I mourn the days when Alberta was represented by educated, responsible stewards of our vast potential for the good of ALL THE PEOPLE OF ALBERTA.
I look with horror on the decline of that highly principled leadership into the stinking sewer of our the current Unfortunate Christian Party provincial government led by a jumped-up Tik-Tok influencer and a cohort of sycophants and grifters. They are pursuing nothing more than personal enrichment and attention-seeking in pursuit of their next gig. Danielle Smith is an airhead whose only significant accomplishment is self-promotion. She is famous-for-being-famous. There's no substance underneath that shallow, superficial performance. Some days, I despair.